Seeing the woods for the trees: the problem of information inefficiency and information overload on operator performance

One of the recurring questions in designing dynamic control environments is whether providing more information leads to better operational decisions. The idea of having every piece of information is increasingly tempting (and in safety critical domains often mandatory) but has become a potential obstacle for designers and operators. The present research study examined this challenge of appropriate information design and usability within a railway control setting. A laboratory study was conducted to investigate the presentation of different levels of information (taken from data processing framework, Dadashi et al., 2014) and the association with, and potential prediction of, the performance of a human operator when completing a cognitively demanding problem solving scenario within railways. Results indicated that presenting users only with information corresponding to their cognitive task, and in the absence of other, non task-relevant information, improves the performance of their problem solving/alarm handling. Knowing the key features of interest to various agents (machine or human) and using the data processing framework to guide the optimal level of information required by each of these agents could potentially lead to safer and more usable designs

Analysis of Different Types of Droughts and Their Characteristics in Iran Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)

Introduction Drought is a costly natural hazard with wide-ranging consequences for agriculture, ecosystems, and water resources. The purpose of this research is to determine the characteristics of drought and its types in Iran during the last four decades. Drought turns into different types in the water cycle and imposes many negative consequences on natural ecosystems and different socio-economic sectors. According to International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), drought accounts for 59% of the economic losses caused by climate change. Many parts of the world have experienced extensive and severe droughts in recent decades. In Iran, droughts have occurred frequently during the last four decades and have become more severe in the last decade. Materials and Methods In this research, we used precipitation, temperature, wind speed, and sunshine hours of 49 synoptic meteorological stations during 1981-2020. Drought has been investigated with The Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in four scales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months, which represent meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic droughts. To calculate the SPEI, the precipitation variable (P) is analyzed with the cumulative difference between P and potential evapotranspiration (PET). In other words, surplus/deficit climate water balance (CWB) is considered. The FAO Penman-Monteith method was used to calculate PET. Then, using the RUN theory, the characteristics of drought, including its magnitude, duration, intensity, and frequency, were determined for all four investigated scales. Results and Discussion The results showed that the frequency of drought events fluctuates from a minimum of 12.13% to a maximum of 18.13% in different regions of the country during 1981-2020. The climatological study of drought characteristics shows that the most frequent drought events occurred in the west, southwest, and southern coasts of the Persian Gulf and northwest of Iran compare to other regions of the country. This is while the duration of the drought period is longer in the eastern and interior regions of Iran. Examining the types of droughts shows that more than 60% of the droughts occurring in Iran are moderate droughts. Moderate and severe droughts are mostly seen in the west, southwest, and northwest of Iran. The duration of Iran's drought varies from at least 3 months in meteorological drought to more than 8 months in socio-economic drought. Therefore, droughts are more frequent in the western regions and longer in the eastern regions. The intensity of drought is also higher in the eastern and interior regions than in the western and northwestern regions of Iran. The decadal changes of drought show that the duration and magnitude of drought in Iran have increased and the severity of the drought has decreased during recent decades. Conclusion The intensity, magnitude, and duration of the drought period in Iran increased with the increase of the investigated scales from 3 months to 24 months. Examining the average frequency of drought showed that as we move from meteorological drought to socio-economic drought, the frequency of drought increases, which confirms the previous findings. The eastern and southeastern parts of Iran have experienced a longer duration and larger magnitude of drought than the western and northwestern Iran, which can be caused by the climate conditions of this region, i.e., high temperature and evapotranspiration and less precipitation, and seasonality. The maximum magnitude of drought in Iran is related to socio-economic drought (SPEI-24) followed by hydrological drought (SPEI-12). This characteristic has increased especially in the last two decades (2001-2020) compared to the previous decades (1981-2000). This is while the magnitude of meteorological (SPEI-3) and agricultural (SPEI-12) droughts do not increase much in the last two decades compared to the previous decades. Anthropogenic activities play a more prominent role in increasing the magnitude of socio-economic (SPEI-24) and hydrological (SPEI-12) droughts than natural forcing. With the construction of many dams and the digging of countless deep wells, as well as changing the direction of rivers, the water cycle has been completely affected by human activities during the last four decades in Iran. Obviously, anthropogenic activities play an important role in increasing the magnitude of hydrological and socio-economic droughts. In contrast, meteorological and agricultural droughts have not shown many changes in Iran. The results of the decadal average of drought intensity showed that this characteristic of drought in the last decade (2011-2020) has decreased compared to previous decades (1981-2010). On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, the magnitude and duration of drought, especially for hydrological and socio-economic droughts, have increased in the last two decades (2001-2020). Therefore, the reason for the decrease in the severity of the drought has a statistical explanation before it has a climatic reason because the severity of the drought is calculated by dividing the magnitude of the drought by its duration

Astronomy & Astrophysics The quiet Sun average Doppler shift of coronal lines up to 2 MK

ABSTRACT Context. The average Doppler shift shown by spectral lines formed from the chromosphere to the corona reveals important information on the mass and energy balance of the solar atmosphere, providing an important observational constraint to any models of the solar corona. Previous spectroscopic observations of vacuum ultra-violet (VUV) lines have revealed a persistent average wavelength shift of lines formed at temperatures up to 1 MK. At higher temperatures, the behaviour is still essentially unknown. Aims. Here we analyse combined SUMER (Solar Ultraviolet Measurements of Emitted Radiation)/SoHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) and EIS (EUV Imaging Spectrometer)/Hinode observations of the quiet Sun around disk centre to determine, for the first time, the average Doppler shift of several spectral lines formed between 1 and 2 MK, where the largest part of the quiet coronal emission is formed. Methods. The measurements are based on a novel technique applied to EIS spectra to measure the difference in Doppler shift between lines formed at different temperatures. Simultaneous wavelength-calibrated SUMER spectra allow establishing the absolute value at the reference temperature of T ≈ 1 MK. Results. The average line shifts at 1 MK < T < 1.8 MK are modestly, but clearly bluer than those observed at 1 MK. By accepting an average blue shift of about (−1.8 ± 0.6) km s −1 at 1 MK (as provided by SUMER measurements), this translates into a maximum Doppler shift of (−4.4 ± 2.2) km s −1 around 1.8 MK. The measured value appears to decrease to about (−1.3 ± 2.6) km s −1 at the Fe xv formation temperature of 2.1 MK. Conclusions. The measured average Doppler shift between 0.01 and 2.1 MK, for which we provide a parametrisation, appears to be qualitatively and roughly quantitatively consistent with what foreseen by 3D coronal models where heating is produced by dissipation of currents induced by photospheric motions and by reconnection with emerging magnetic flux

A cross-sector analysis of human and organisational factors in the deployment of data-driven predictive maintenance

Domains such as utilities, power generation, manufacturing and transport are increasingly turning to data-driven tools for management and maintenance of key assets. Whole ecosystems of sensors and analytical tools can provide complex, predictive views of network asset performance. Much research in this area has looked at the technology to provide both sensing and analysis tools. The reality in the field, however, is that the deployment of these technologies can be problematic due to user issues, such as interpretation of data or embedding within processes, and organisational issues, such as business change to gain value from asset analysis. 13 experts from the field of remote condition monitoring, asset management and predictive analytics across multiple sectors were interviewed to ascertain their experience of supplying data-driven applications. The results of these interviews are summarised as a framework based on a predictive maintenance project lifecycle covering project motivations and conception, design and development, and operation. These results identified critical themes for success around having a target or decision-led, rather than data-led, approach to design; long-term resourcing of the deployment; the complexity of supply chains to provide data-driven solutions and the need to maintain knowledge across the supply chain; the importance of fostering technical competency in end-user organisations; and the importance of a maintenance-driven strategy in the deployment of data-driven asset management. Emerging from these themes are recommendations related to culture, delivery process, resourcing, supply chain collaboration and industry-wide cooperation

The characteristics of railway service disruption: implications for disruption management

Rail disruption management is central to operational continuity and customer satisfaction. Disruption is not a unitary phenomenon - it varies by time, cause, location and complexity of coordination. Effective, user-centred technology for rail disruption must reflect this variety. A repertory grid study was conducted to elicit disruption characteristics. Construct elicitation with a group of experts (n=7) captured 26 characteristics relevant to rail disruption. A larger group of operational staff (n=28) rated 10 types of rail incident against the 26 characteristics. The results revealed distinctions such as business impact and public perception, and the importance of management of the disruption over initial detection. There were clear differences between those events that stop the traffic, as opposed to those that only slow the traffic. The results also demonstrate the utility of repertory grid for capturing the characteristics of complex work domains

The quiet Sun average Doppler shift of coronal lines up to 2 MK

The average Doppler shift shown by spectral lines formed from the chromosphere to the corona reveals important information on the mass and energy balance of the solar atmosphere, providing an important observational constraint to any models of the solar corona. Previous spectroscopic observations of vacuum ultra-violet (VUV) lines have revealed a persistent average wavelength shift of lines formed at temperatures up to 1 MK. At higher temperatures, the behaviour is still essentially unknown. Here we analyse combined SUMER/SoHO and EIS/Hinode observations of the quiet Sun around disk centre to determine, for the first time, the average Doppler shift of several spectral lines formed between 1 and 2 MK, where the largest part of the quiet coronal emission is formed. The measurements are based on a novel technique applied to EIS spectra to measure the difference in Doppler shift between lines formed at different temperatures. Simultaneous wavelength-calibrated SUMER spectra allow establishing the absolute value at the reference temperature of 1 MK. The average line shifts at 1 MK < T < 1.8 MK are modestly, but clearly bluer than those observed at 1 MK. By accepting an average blue shift of about (-1.8+/-0.6) km/s at 1 MK (as provided by SUMER measurements), this translates into a maximum Doppler shift of (-4.4+/-2.2) km/s around 1.8 MK. The measured value appears to decrease to about (-1.3+/-2.6) km/s at the Fe XV formation temperature of 2.1 MK. The measured average Doppler shift between 0.01 and 2.1 MK, for which we provide a parametrisation, appears to be qualitatively and roughly quantitatively consistent with what foreseen by 3-D coronal models where heating is produced by dissipation of currents induced by photospheric motions and by reconnection with emerging magnetic flux.Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures. Astronomy and Astrophysics (in press

Global genotype distribution of human clinical isolates of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae; A systematic review

Background and Aim: The global rise of antimicrobial resistance among bacterial strains is a rapidly growing challenge and is becoming a major public health concern. This study documents the worldwide spread and genotype distribution of human clinical isolates of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (NPKP). Methods: Several international databases, including Web of Science, Embase and Medline were searched (2010 - 2019) to identify studies addressing the frequency of NPKP regionally or worldwide. Results: Of 4779 articles identified, 202 studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria and were included in our analysis. The frequency of NPKP in Asia, Europe, America, Africa and Oceania was 64.6, 20.1, 9.0, 5.6 and 0.4, respectively. The most prevalent sequence types (STs) among NPKP were ST11, ST290, ST147, ST340, ST15, ST278 and ST14 based on published studies. Conclusion: The dissemination of blaNDM variants in different STs among NPKP in the various region of world is a serious concern to public health. The prevalence of NPKP should be controlled by comprehensive infection control measures and optimization of antibiotic therapy. © 202

Identifying rail asset maintenance processes: a human-centric and sensemaking approach

Efficient asset maintenance is key for delivering services such as transport. Current rail maintenance processes have been mostly reactive with a recent shift towards exploring proactive modes. The introduction of new ubiquitous technologies and advanced data analytics facilitates the embedding of a ‘predict-and-prevent’ approach to managing assets. Successful, user-centred integration of such technology is still, however, a sparsely understood area. This study reports results from a set of interviews, based on Critical Decision Method, with rail asset maintenance and management experts regarding current procedural aspects of asset management and maintenance. We analyse and present the results from a human-centric sensemaking timeline perspective. We found that within a complex sociotechnical environment such as rail transport, asset maintenance processes apply not just at local levels, but also to broader, strategic levels that involve different stakeholders and necessitate different levels of expertise. This is a particularly interesting aspect within maintenance that has not been discussed as of yet within a process-based and timeline-based models of asset maintenance. We argue that it is important to consider asset maintenance activities within both micro (local) and macro (broader) levels to ensure reliability and stability in transport services. We also propose that the traditionally distinct notions of individual, collaborative and artefact-based sensemaking are in fact all in evidence in this sensemaking context, and argue that a more holistic view of sensemaking is therefore appropriate by placing these results within an amended Recogntion Primed Decsion making model